Research. Validate. Build.
The order is the method.

1. Stage one

   Research

   Start by narrowing to a group of people specific enough that you could actually find twenty of them this week. Then spend your time reading and listening rather than planning: go where that group already discusses the problem — support threads, review sections, community posts, replies under a video — and write down the sentences they use, word for word.

   Talk to three or four of them if you can. Ask what they tried the last time this came up and what happened, rather than whether they would buy something. Then look at what already exists, including the free workarounds and the spreadsheet someone passes around, because those are the alternatives you would actually be measured against.

   By the end of Research you should have

   • A named group of people, not a broad market
   • Quotes in their words, collected rather than paraphrased
   • A list of existing alternatives, paid and free
   • The problem written down the way they describe it
2. Stage two

   Validate

   Validation is where you separate what you observed from what you believe. Go back through your notes and split them into two piles: things you can point at, and things you are assuming. Most first ideas shrink at this point, and that is the stage doing its job.

   Score the opportunity against the same criteria every time, so two ideas can be compared instead of argued over. Where the evidence is thin, either go and collect more or write plainly that it is missing — an assumption you have labelled is far less expensive than one you forgot you made.

   By the end of Validate you should have

   • Evidence and assumptions recorded separately
   • A score you arrived at using consistent criteria
   • The riskiest untested assumption named
   • A decision written down with the reasoning behind it
3. Stage three

   Build

   Only now do you make something, and it should be the smallest useful version — narrow enough to finish in days, complete enough that someone could genuinely use it. The point of the first version is to produce information, not to be finished.

   Put it in front of the same people from stage one and ask for a small real commitment: a pre-order, a booked call, a deposit, a signup with an address they check. Watch what they do rather than what they say, then decide what to change based on what actually happened.

   By the end of Build you should have

   • A small version real people have used
   • A record of what they did, not only what they said
   • One thing you now know that you did not know before
   • A clear next move: refine it, narrow it, or set it down

These are illustrative phrasings of a creator’s own reasoning — not data, findings or claims about any market.

• Assumption

  I think people would pay for this.

  Evidence

  Three people described this problem to me unprompted, and two asked what it would cost.

• Assumption

  There isn’t really anything else like it.

  Evidence

  I found four paid alternatives and one free spreadsheet people pass around, and I have used all five.

• Assumption

  The market for this is huge.

  Evidence

  I can name the places this specific group gathers, and I have read what they post there for two weeks.

• Assumption

  Everyone I mentioned it to said they’d buy it.

  Evidence

  Two people paid a deposit. One asked for it back the same week, and told me why.

• Assumption

  This is a huge pain point for them.

  Evidence

  I have eleven quotes describing it, and six of them mention the same workaround.